7月開始了高溫的模式，而鋼價在漸漸下跌，淡季開始了嗎？往后還要面臨錯鋒用電政策呢。因此最近的鋼鐵行情，將會面臨更嚴峻的考驗。July began the high temperature mode, and steel prices are gradually falling, ...
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7月開始了高溫的模式，而鋼價在漸漸下跌，淡季開始了嗎？往后還要面臨錯鋒用電政策呢。因此最近的鋼鐵行情，將會面臨更嚴峻的考驗。 July began the high temperature mode, and steel prices are gradually falling, the off-season began? In the future, we will have to face the wrong front electricity policy. Therefore, the recent steel market, will face a more severe test. 鋼材是關系到國計民生的重要大宗商品，其價格的波動受到眾多因素的影響。 Steel is an important commodity related to the national economy and people's livelihood, and its price fluctuations are affected by many factors. 以7月6日為例，現貨價格漲跌互現，均價下跌 On July 6, for example, spot prices were mixed and average prices fell
那么影響當前鋼價的因素有：The factors affecting the current steel prices are: 1、據中鋼協數據顯示，2022年6月下旬，重點鋼企粗鋼日均產量209.91萬噸，環比下降7.03%；鋼材庫存量1694.86萬噸，比上一旬（及6月中旬）減少357.46萬噸，降低17.42%。1. According to the data of CISA, in late June 2022, the average daily output of key steel enterprises was 2,099,100 tons, down 7.03% from the previous month on month; the steel inventory was 16.948,6 million tons, down 3.5746 million tons, from 10.00 (and mid-June) by 17.42%. 分析師觀點：粗鋼日產與鋼材庫存雙雙下降，且鋼材庫存降幅環比擴大，鋼材供應將有所收縮，有利于緩解鋼材市場供需矛盾，推動供需平衡，穩定鋼材市場價格，穩定鋼市發展預期，利好鋼價。 Analysts' view: crude steel Nissan and steel inventory both fell, and steel inventory decline expanded month-on-month, steel supply will shrink, is conducive to alleviate the steel market supply and demand contradiction, promote the balance of supply and demand, stabilize steel market prices, stable steel market development expectations, good steel prices. 2、北京時間7月5日晚，美元指數刷新近20年新高，最高一度近106.6歐元兌美元匯率則跌至近20年低點。能源股全線走低，埃克森美孚跌3.13%，雪佛龍跌2.7%，康菲石油跌6.97%，斯倫貝謝跌6.51%，西方石油跌2.22%。2. On the evening of July 5, Beijing time, the DOLLAR index hit a new 20-year high, and the highest exchange rate of nearly 106.6 euro against the US dollar fell to a nearly 20-year low against the US dollar. Energy stocks fell across the board, with Exxon Mobil down 3.13%, Chevron down 2.7%, Conocophillips down 6.97%, Schlumberger down 6.51% and Occidental oil down 2.22%. 分析師觀點：美元指數創歷史新高，引發全球對經濟“衰退”的恐慌情緒；同時，美元升值導致以美元結算的貨幣的貶值，引發大宗商品價格下行壓力增加。今天期貨盤面一度深跌，全天呈現寬幅震蕩走勢，也是市場恐慌情緒的一種釋放，中長期來看，大宗商品價格仍然承壓運行，原材料對鋼價支撐走弱。 Analysts: The dollar index hit record highs, raising global fears about a "recession" and a stronger dollar-dollar currencies, mounting downward pressure on commodity prices. Today's futures disk once fell deep, the whole day showed a wide shock trend, is also a release of market panic, in the medium and long term, commodity prices are still under pressure operation, raw materials to the steel price support is weak. 3、目前，22城今年首輪集中土拍已悉數收官，第二輪土拍進展近半。部分三四線城市也于近期開展了集中土拍。相關數據顯示，得益于首輪集中供地實施、供地規則優化和拿地門檻降低，6月份土地市場成交環比回升，流拍現象有所好轉。3. At present, the first round of concentrated land auction in 22 cities this year has been completed, and the second round of land auction has progressed for nearly half. Some third-tier and fourth-tier cities have also recently launched a centralized land auction. Relevant data show that thanks to the implementation of the first round of centralized land supply, the optimization of land supply rules and the reduction of the threshold of land acquisition, the land market transaction in June rebounded month-on month, and the phenomenon of failed auction has improved. 分析師觀點：隨著市場信心恢復和融資環境改善，民營房地產企業拿地意愿或逐步回升，預計下半年土地市場成交將繼續呈現回暖勢頭。但短期來看，樓市的寒冬仍在持續，建材鋼需釋放難有明顯改觀，利空鋼價。鋼材價格是市場各方博弈的結果。影響鋼材價格的因素有很多，最主要的是供求關系。影響供求關系的深層次因素有宏觀經濟、貨幣政策、匯率政策、出口因素、原材料成本、鋼廠產量、市場庫存、國際市場、期貨和電子交易等。 Analysts' views: With the recovery of market confidence and the improvement of the financing environment, the willingness of private real estate enterprises to acquire land may gradually recover, and it is expected that the land market transaction will continue to show a recovery momentum in the second half of the year. But in the short term, the winter of the property market is still continuing, building materials steel needs to release is difficult to significantly improve, negative steel prices. Steel prices is the result of the game in the market. There are many factors affecting the price of steel, the most important is the relationship between supply and demand. The underlying factors affecting the supply and demand relations are macroeconomic, monetary policy, exchange rate policy, export factors, raw material costs, steel mill production, market inventory, international market, futures and electronic trading. 佛山市萬慶物資有限公司建議想及時了解和掌握鋼鐵行業的動態變化，在平時的工作中，應關注鋼鐵產品產量旬報、月報，進出口快報，各類價格指數，社會庫存，鋼鐵工業下游行業運行分析等重要統計信息，只有了解了行業的生產和運行情況，才能更好地把握市場。 Analysts' views: With the recovery of market confidence and the improvement of the financing environment, the willingness of private real estate enterprises to acquire land may gradually recover, and it is expected that the land market transaction will continue to show a recovery momentum in the second half of the year. But in the short term, the winter of the property market is still continuing, building materials steel needs to release is difficult to significantly improve, negative steel prices. Steel prices is the result of the game in the market. There are many factors affecting the price of steel, the most important is the relationship between supply and demand. The underlying factors affecting the supply and demand relations are macroeconomic, monetary policy, exchange rate policy, export factors, raw material costs, steel mill production, market inventory, international market, futures and electronic trading. 目前我國鋼材貿易企業面臨的形勢比較嚴峻，全球經濟放緩的趨勢仍在持續，對我國經濟增長的不利影響在擴大，市場需求減弱，生產成本仍處高位，出口困難，鋼材價格仍在低位徘徊。而且國家實施從緊的貨幣政策，既對企業資金運作提出更高的要求，也給企業運營帶來較大困難，行業經濟效益已從微利趨向面臨虧損。形勢逼人，要求我們要更加準確地把握市場。我們必須對國內外鋼鐵市場形勢、市場需求、價格波動原因等因素做更加深入的分析和研究。 At present, China's steel trade enterprises are facing a relatively grim situation, the global economic slowdown The trend is still continuing, and the adverse impact on China's economic growth is expanding, and the market demand is weakening, Production costs are still high, exports are difficult, and steel prices are still hovering low. And the country The implementation of a tight monetary policy not only puts forward higher requirements for enterprise capital operation, but also for enterprises Industry operation brings great difficulties, the industry economic benefits have been faced from a small profit to a loss.terrain It requires us to grasp the market more accurately. We must treat the steel markets at home and abroad Field situation, market demand, price fluctuation reasons and other factors to do more in-depth analysis and research. |
